Professor Zhang Weiwei, one of China's most influential public intellectuals and a leading voice on China's political model and global rise, recently offered a compelling perspective on a range of international issues, from the US-China trade war to the evolving multipolar world order and Africa's potential. Having advised policymakers in Beijing and debated top global thinkers, Professor Zhang provided insights into how China views the world and how the world is seen through China's eyes.
Professor Zhang, who served as a senior English interpreter for Chinese leaders in the mid-1980s and met several African leaders including Prime Minister Robert Mugabe and President Julius Nyerere, spoke extensively on the global economic landscape and geopolitical flashpoints.
The US-China Trade War: A Losing Battle for the US
Regarding the trade war initiated by former US President Donald Trump in 2018, Professor Zhang firmly believes the United States will "lose completely." He recalled a suggestion he made to American journalists when Trump spoke of imposing a 60% tariff on Chinese goods: "Ask your president to make it 600%." According to Zhang, such a move would lead to US supermarkets being "empty or half empty".
His analysis suggests that the US depends far more on China than the other way around. Furthermore, in terms of purchasing power, China has been a larger economy than the United States since 2014, making it the world's largest economy for almost a decade. China also boasts the world's most comprehensive manufacturing setup, with an industrial ecosystem that the US has "hollowed out" due to neoliberalism and de-industrialization. He argued that it is impossible for the US to recreate such an ecosystem quickly, citing Apple and Microsoft's reliance on industrial clusters near major Chinese cities like Shanghai or Canton for spare parts and cost-effective production.
Global Tariffs and South-South Cooperation
Professor Zhang noted that the Trump administration's approach to tariffs has widened to include virtually everyone, including South Africa. He highlighted Brazil as an example, where the US imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian products. In response, China stepped in to buy all of Brazil's major product sold to the US (coffee) and large quantities of airplane spare parts. This, he explained, is a prime example of "South-South cooperation". Russia also engaged in currency swaps with Brazil, all linked to the US tariffs.
For South Africa, facing a 30% tariff from the US, Professor Zhang pointed out that South Africa's trade with China was $65 billion last year, while all of Africa's trade with the US combined was only $70 billion. He confidently stated that China's vast consumer market could easily absorb the trade volume affected by US tariffs on Africa. In contrast to US tariffs, China has announced zero tariffs for all 53 African countries, with the exception of Eswatini, which has diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
He elaborated on China's consumer market, noting that while the US is the largest in nominal terms, China is much bigger in purchasing power parity. Unlike the US market, which includes high legal, pharmaceutical, and doctor's fees, China's market is driven by real consumption and fierce domestic competition, which keeps prices low.
China's Economic Evolution: A Leap into the Future
Professor Zhang described China's economic journey since the founding of the People's Republic. The first three decades laid a foundation of comprehensive industries, albeit unsophisticated. The subsequent 46-47 years of reform and opening-up saw China rapidly go through multiple industrial revolutions, now standing "at the forefront of the fourth industrial revolution" with big data, AI, and quantum technologies, on par with or even more advanced than the US.
The last decade, under Xi Jinping, has focused on a "new productivity economy," emphasizing the latest technologies to empower the overall economy. China's AI is deeply integrated into manufacturing, from mining and harbors to pharmaceutical industries. China produces more engineers and scientists annually than all Western countries combined. In 2023, an average of 7.24 million engineers and scientists worked in R&D daily, four to five times more than their American counterparts.
This is powered by a strategy he calls "saturation plus precision." For example, if a problem arises, China can allocate "1,000 engineers, scientists, if not solved, 10,000" to it. This large-scale investment allows for testing various technical paths, as seen with Electric Vehicles (EVs). China explored lithium, hydrogen, and ethanol, eventually focusing on lithium batteries due to their current superiority, while maintaining R&D in other areas. This strategy has led to successes like BYD outselling Tesla in Europe and the emergence of DeepSeek challenging Nvidia. Zhang views China as a "real market economy" due to fierce domestic competition among hundreds of companies, which prepares them for international success.
The Belt and Road Initiative and a Multipolar World Order
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), initiated by Xi Jinping 11-12 years ago, is seen as a successful economic and geostrategic project. Predating the US "pivot to Asia" under Obama, the BRI was a strategic move to "move west" on land and oversea. Over $1 trillion has been invested in more than 4,000 projects, with two-thirds now driven by private companies, ensuring economic sustainability.
Professor Zhang highlighted BRICS as another successful example of the non-Western world's rise. The 11 BRICS members now account for 40% of the world's GDP, surpassing the G7's 33%. He stated that while we are in a multipolar world, a "multipolar world order is yet to be born." Achieving this objective requires member cooperation. He attributed the increased unity among BRICS members, including improved India-China relations, partly to the US's actions under Donald Trump.
For a future multipolar order, he suggested reforms of the UN, including the Security Council, and possibly a "council for development affairs." He also cited Jeffrey Sachs' idea of a UN headquarters in China for new economy, environmental protection, and climate change institutions. China is also building its own institutions, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the New Development Bank (BRICS bank), an approach noted by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Challenging the Dollar's Supremacy
Professor Zhang noted that the SWIFT financial mechanism has been "weaponized" and is "outdated." He contrasted it with China's Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which offers transactions in seconds at almost zero cost, compared to SWIFT's three days and high fees. He referenced former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis's analogy of SWIFT as an "old, outdated highway full of holes" versus China's digital currency approach as a "brand new, efficient, high-speed" highway with growing users.
Professor Jeffrey Sachs has predicted that the "dollar's task is over" in "maximum one decade," a view Professor Zhang largely agrees with.
Global Flashpoints: Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Professor Zhang described it as tragic, as both nations are China's friends, with shared cultural ties. However, he placed the primary blame on NATO's five rounds of eastward expansion. From his "civilizational state" theory, Ukraine, at the interface of two civilizations, chose to be a "fortress pitting one side against another" rather than a bridge, making the tragedy "inevitable." He firmly stated that "China will not allow NATO expansion to Asia". He also expressed surprise at Russia's tolerance for five rounds of expansion. He acknowledged Russia's economic resilience, attributing it to policies like turning a "currency war into a war of goods against money," and continued normal trade with countries like China, keeping supermarkets full and life normal.
On the situation in the Middle East, particularly the conflict in Gaza, Professor Zhang recognized the enormous and deep-seated historical challenges. He affirmed support for a two-state solution. China has played a constructive role, facilitating reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia and among Palestinian factions. Looking long-term, he suggested China could provide technology, know-how, and experience in desert reclamation – a field where China has achieved remarkable success in Xinjiang, turning vast deserts into fertile land for agriculture and solar energy production.
Advice for South Africa: People's Livelihood First
Professor Zhang views Africa as a "land of opportunities," a perception increasingly shared within China's economic elite, contrasting with Western views often focusing on chaos and wars. He advised African nations, including South Africa, to embrace this perspective given their resources, young population, and available technologies, emphasizing the need for "right strategies, right policies".
Drawing from China's experience, he highlighted the philosophy of "people's livelihood first," a core tenet from Confucianism. This principle ensures that all policies, political, economic, social, and legal, ultimately deliver tangible goods and improved living standards for the people. This focus, he explained, has been crucial to China's "enormous progress," transforming its economy from a level lower than most African countries' per capita GDP to the world's largest by purchasing power, growing 48-fold in 45 years.
He also explained China's "socialist market economy," a mixed economy where the state and private sector play complementary roles. The state sector focuses on infrastructure, building world-class bullet train systems and digital infrastructure, ensuring 4G/5G coverage even in remote villages. This robust state-provided infrastructure then creates demand for the private sector to provide e-commerce and other services, leading to a cashless society where "one mobile phone can do everything".
G20 in Johannesburg: A Platform for Africa
Professor Zhang extended hearty congratulations to South Africa for hosting the first G20 summit in Africa. He sees it as a "very good opportunity" to showcase Africa as a "land of opportunity" that is "open for business" and investment. It also provides a platform for the world to better understand China, Russia, Brazil, and India.
Professor Zhang's extensive insights underscored a confident and strategic China navigating a complex global landscape, actively shaping a new multipolar reality while offering an alternative development model to the developing world.