Johannesburg, South Africa – Prominent political analyst Prince Mashele has delivered a scathing critique of the African National Congress (ANC) and its leadership, describing the ruling party as a "criminal enterprise" and warning South Africans to "prepare ourselves for political chaos". Speaking on the "State of the Nation" YouTube channel, Mashele predicted a dramatic decline for the ANC in upcoming local government elections and outlined a future fraught with political instability, especially concerning the current Government of National Unity (GNU).
Ramaphosa: Protecting Criminals, Not Leading
Mashele firmly stated that President Cyril Ramaphosa is "not in the business of leading South Africa" but rather "in the business of protecting criminals from the ANC." He criticized Ramaphosa's perceived lack of leadership, highlighting instances where the President seemed to ask rhetorical questions about poverty and healthcare, despite being in a position to enact change. Mashele called it an insult to the nation for Ramaphosa, described as the second richest Black person in South Africa, to question wealth disparities while his brother-in-law, M, is the richest.
The analyst argued that Ramaphosa and the ANC have "totally lost credibility" in the eyes of South Africans, especially following the "Pala Pala" scandal and subsequent alleged cover-ups. He asserted that South Africans now view ANC leaders as "national disasters," "embarrassments," and "thieves who are stealing".
"National Dialogue" Dubbed a "Circus" and Waste of Money
The recent national dialogue, or "national convention," was dismissed by Mashele as the "ANC's national circus". He observed that no serious person in South Africa had praised it, finding the event "very sad". Mashele argued that the ANC organized the gathering not to solve problems, but to "reclaim some semblance of credibility" knowing they had lost it.
He emphasized that South Africans are "angry" because they know their problems and "don't want another talk shop; they want action." The cost of the dialogue, funded by taxpayers, was seen as "a waste of money," with "fat cats" congregating at UNISA to eat at the public's expense.
Cover-ups and a "Rubber Stamp" Parliament
Mashele pointed to the alleged cover-up surrounding the Phala Phala incident, involving President Ramaphosa and his former ally, Munu. He claimed that Ramaphosa protected Munu because Munu was instrumental in his rise to power, handling "dirty money". The establishment of the Matlanga Commission and a parliamentary ad hoc committee were seen as part of this cover-up, with the ANC allegedly working to "sabotage both".
According to Mashele, the ANC has spent 31 years reducing Parliament to a "rubber stamp," ensuring that "no parliamentary inquiry has consequences". He suggested that instead of inquiries, Munu should have been fired, charged, and arrested, just like others. The analyst expressed little hope for the parliamentary process, calling it "another waste of money" and "hot air," designed to protect "comrades" within the ANC. He highlighted the alleged phone calls between a senior politician and a "crook" as further evidence of the criminalization of the state by the ANC.
ANC's Looming Electoral Collapse and the Rise of MK
Mashele made a bold prediction for the next local government elections: "I would be shocked if the A were to get 20%... South Africans are going to be punished very seriously." He noted that the ANC's national election results are always higher than its subsequent local government performance, suggesting it will get "less than 40%" next year.
He also predicted the "lowest voter turnout in history," as many South Africans no longer believe in the power of their vote. For those who do vote, Mashele expects a significant chunk of traditional ANC voters in KwaZulu-Natal to shift to the MK party, which he identifies as the "fastest growing party". While the DA might gain some votes, he believes they will not replace the ANC, and smaller parties will also see some gains. The EFF, he noted, generally struggles in local government elections due to a lack of community trust in their counselors.
Looking further ahead to 2029, Mashele believes that if Jacob Zuma is still alive, MK could dramatically grow, potentially reaching 23-25%, while the ANC could fall below 20%.
The Fragile Government of National Unity (GNU)
Mashele characterized the GNU as primarily a coalition between the ANC and the DA, with smaller parties having little influence. He revealed a deep-seated animosity between the two main parties: "Both the ANC and the DA are in this thing to destroy each other and they hate each other."
Despite their mutual distrust, neither party wants to be seen as the one to pull out, fearing a severe backlash from voters who largely view the GNU, "rickety as it is," as the best option. Mashele asserted that the GNU "will not finish 5 years". Its collapse is likely to coincide with President Ramaphosa being "booted out as the president of the ANC" at the elective conference in late 2027. He explained that a new ANC leader, like Paul Mashatile or Fikile Mbalula, would likely rise on an "anti-Ramaphosa ticket," making it politically impossible for the DA to continue defending an ANC led by such figures. This, he warned, would lead to "political chaos in December 2027".
No Hope for Controversial Laws or "Popular" Figures
Mashele dismissed the likelihood of controversial laws like expropriation without compensation and the National Health Insurance (NHI) ever being implemented. He branded the ANC as "incapable of implementing anything," citing past failures such as the National Development Plan. He likened fear of the ANC to being "scared of a dead lion," as "the lion is dead".
He also challenged the perceived popularity of figures like Panyaza Lesufi, stating that Lesufi has presided over a "very steep decline politically" for the ANC in Gauteng and is not genuinely popular within the party or the province.
A Call for Elite Intervention to Rescue South Africa
Amidst the grim outlook, Mashele issued a desperate call for South Africa's elites to take action. He expressed worry that "serious groups of the elite who are meeting and substantively working on a plan to rescue South Africa" are absent. He stressed that societies are always led by elites, citing historical examples from Russia to the UK and Singapore.
Mashele urged patriotic South Africans with the country's interest at heart to convene, plan, and guide the nation's trajectory. He warned that if elites do not step up, "the so-called masses will take over," and "this whole thing will be up in smoke." This effort, he concluded, would be a "fight," as criminal elements would resist, but it must be conducted without breaking the law.