JOHANNESBURG - A recent analysis by political analyst Gogo Matshiqi, drawing on a range of contemporary political and institutional challenges, has provided a stark portrait of South Africa, detailing the intricate structures of organized crime, ongoing attempts at state capture, and intense battles over political succession. Matshiqi emphasized that the nation is grappling with a deep nexus of corruption involving powerful syndicates operating across government levels.
The Anatomy of Cartels and State Capture
Matshiqi’s discussion focused heavily on the nature of organized crime, particularly its structure and its ties to state institutions. The analyst confirmed the argument made by some that the current cartels, linked to organized crime and corruption, constitute the totality of organized crime in South Africa, although there may be other cartels yet to be identified.
Referencing comments made by Generals Masula and Khumalo, Matshiqi affirmed that an attempt to capture the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) is correct. This capture attempt is suggested to extend to the State security sphere.
To understand the complexity of these operations, Matshiqi stressed the need for detailed analyses, including organograms, to show the relationship between a "big cartel" (represented as a large block) and the various syndicates linked to it. These structures, Matshiqi noted, involve activities such as drug trafficking and secret travel. The structures of these drug cartels have evolved from the old "Big 5" era. The operations can be likened to concentric circles focused around a central entity, potentially a leader or the cartel itself—the "Queen B"—though the original Queen B is said to be "no more".
Syndicates are not merely external forces; they operate internally within state departments, such as Home Affairs, where they are involved in corruption, sometimes acting separately and sometimes together. Matshiqi noted that leaders in drug trafficking often act as dominant players, suggesting that the leadership structure of these groups involves senior police officers and other heads.
Institutional Scrutiny and the NPA
The discussion touched on the performance and integrity of key institutional figures. National Director of Public Prosecutions (NDPP) Shamila Batohi, who plays a central role in national prosecutions, appeared before Parliament. Matshiqi granted her a high score for credibility, noting she came across as a witness of integrity, despite ongoing questions about certain aspects of her testimony.
The case of alleged gang leader Cat Matlala was also scrutinized. Matshiqi noted the irony and danger surrounding his involvement. Matlala, who reportedly received a bodyguard, is associated with the disciplinary code of the 27 gang. According to the analyst, a member following this code would normally never provide information to politicians or police. The fact that Matlala is seeking to cut himself off and provide information, possibly to police or politicians, is highly significant.
Political Battles and the Shadow of Succession
Matshiqi weighed in on the political stability of the ANC and the fate of President Cyril Ramaphosa. Despite persistent speculation regarding his resignation, including before the G20, the current outlook suggests Ramaphosa will stay. The analyst suggested that the revelations being witnessed might signal the "beginning of the end" for the current system, potentially leading to a collapse of government.
When considering who controls the ANC, Matshiqi maintained the view that President Ramaphosa is more powerful than the cartels. However, the ascendancy to high office is characterized by a series of battles—battles between cartels, between individuals, and within the party itself.
The looming struggle over succession involves Paul Mashatile, whom Matshiqi regards as the front-runner. Although Mashatile is currently the subject of efforts to expose him as one of the most corrupt politicians in the country, should he succeed in achieving the presidency after the elections, he is expected to follow the typical ANC presidential pattern: calming the market. This involves employing neo-liberal market rhetoric to align himself with the interests of capital.
The influence of capital—both domestic and global—is highlighted as a dominating force in ANC decision-making. Matshiqi argues that, with the exception of one specific weekend, the finance minister is effectively selected by capital. Ultimately, the outcome of the next election is expected to be dictated by money and capital.
Historical Compromises and 'Blood Money'
The analysis pointed to the deep internal corruption plaguing the governing party. Cartels and syndicates control corruption at both provincial and national government levels, and Matshiqi did not exclude the possibility that some money used in ANC campaigns was "blood money" derived from internal, bloody aspects of the party's campaigns.
Furthermore, Matshiqi highlighted a profound historical and political compromise. The analyst stated that some prosecutions and investigations are curtailed to ensure that former apartheid operatives are not exposed, fearing that going after them would lead to reciprocal actions against the current leaders. This suggests that the ANC has made deals to protect criminals from the apartheid era. Matshiqi interprets this as a compromise on the part of the ANC, potentially accommodating the interests of white capital.
Matshiqi warned that this ongoing political crisis and the failure to address such deep-seated compromises risk the ANC’s continued electoral erosion, potentially destroying the party unless a radical shift occurs. The analyst concluded that the conversation itself strikes right at the heart of South African democracy.