Rob Hersov, a respected entrepreneur and outspoken critic of the establishment, delivered a powerful and challenging speech at the recent investment conference, declaring that South Africa is "uninvestable under the ANC".
Hersov, known for his fierce criticism and advocacy for a better South Africa, stated that if people are still putting money into the country under the current leadership, they are "gambling with your family's future," not investing.
This reality, he stressed, is not about race or history, but solely about "competence, accountability and results".
The Scale of Failure
The entrepreneur detailed a devastating “ANC balance sheet” showing failure on nearly every measure, including growth, jobs, infrastructure, safety, and governance.
Since 2008, when what Hersov calls "the rot really kicked in," South Africa’s average GDP growth has been 1.3%, while population growth has been higher, averaging 1.4%, and more recently, 2%. Hersov concluded that every year since 2008, South Africa has gone backwards and gotten poorer.
Key issues highlighted in his critique include:
- Debt Death Spiral: The country’s debt to GDP ratio has jumped drastically from 24% in 2008 to 75% today. This means 20% of government revenue now goes to interest payments, requiring the country to borrow money just to pay interest on old debt.
- Corruption: Hersov stated that the ANC has institutionalized corruption. The money stolen in just four years during state capture is reportedly more than the nation’s annual budget, funds that should have built schools, hospitals, and infrastructure. Hersov was critical of President Ramaphosa, noting that asking him to fix corruption, which he admits lasted a decade while he was deputy president, is like "asking an arsonist to put out a fire".
- Tiny Tax Base: Only 12% of South Africans (about 7 million people) pay tax. Moreover, just 100,000 individuals pay 90% of the tax.
- Welfare Dependency: Hersov pointed out that 62% of the black population relies on social grants, and he was dismayed that President Ramaphosa treated the increase in recipients (from 18 million to 28 million) as an accomplishment.
- Brain Drain and Investment: South Africa is currently experiencing a massive brain drain and almost no foreign direct investment.
The Fight Against the Barbarians
Hersov described his public speaking and criticism as driven by an "absolute hatred of the ANC and what they've done to this country". He sees his job as continuing "until the barbarians have left the gate".
He recalled that three and a half years ago, almost nobody in public discourse dared to stand up and openly criticize the ANC. Now, he notes that tons of podcasters, civil society members (like the NPOs), and even mainstream media are beginning to call out the failures of the government.
Hersov also revealed he is taking new advice regarding his approach. He has been advised to stop calling ANC members or voters "stupid," but rather to criticize their "policy stupid" and their "ideology stupid".
He believes the way forward may lie in the strategy used before 1994, where elites (like the Gavin Rellys and Anthony Ogilvies) met privately with ANC elites in places like Lusaka and London to work things out behind the scenes. He suggested that today's corporate and NGO chiefs should meet with ANC elites to hammer out the next phase of South Africa.
Hersov’s 100-Day Fix and Investment Advice
Despite the grim outlook under the current government, Hersov affirmed that South Africa is "fixable" and that he could turn the country around in just 100 days as a "benevolent dictator". He has a detailed 14-week plan mapped out, though he did not share those specifics during the speech. He referenced simple, effective fixes previously suggested, such as burning coal, removing import taxes, and conceding transport and ports.
Regarding immediate financial action, Hersov outlined five key investments where he has put his own money—investments that are insulated from the failures of the ANC:
- Gold: Hersov advised buying physical gold (such as Krugerrands) and allocating 5 to 10% of a portfolio to it, calling it the ultimate safe haven that the ANC cannot destroy. He warned against buying shares in mining companies due to risks like regulation, load shedding, and strikes.
- Bitcoin (Digital Gold): He recommended Bitcoin because it is portable, non-confiscable, and non-inflatable. He shared a story illustrating its advantage over physical gold: a man avoiding the Russian army sold everything, converted it to Bitcoin, memorized the codes, and externalized his capital by walking across the border.
- Technology/AI: The easiest way to invest in the future economy is through the Magnificent 7. Hersov also invested in a private equity fund run by 24-year-old South African entrepreneur Courtney Marland, which focuses on AI B2B graduates from the prestigious Y Combinator accelerator.
- Tourism: Investing in world-class tourist destinations is a good long-term bet. These outfits are inexpensive for foreigners and can be insulated from government problems.
- Western Cape Property: This province is considered the "safe haven province". As evidence of this focus, 34% of bond applications for investment properties in 2024 were for the Western Cape.
In closing, Hersov offered a quote known as Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice which is adequately explained by stupidity". He insists his stance is not pessimism, but simply "reality".